Why the Phil Kessel Trade Still Makes Sense

The debate around the Phil Kessel trade should start heating up again as we near the end of the season while fans and pundits alike keep a close eye on the standings. If the pick the Maple Leafs traded to the Bruins for Kessel ends up being a lottery pick, the same old, tired rants from local journalists will echo far and wide: the Leafs always trade away draft picks that could have, should have, would have resulted in a future NHL star. Some of these blowhards will mention the Tom Kurvers trade that netted the New Jersey Devils Scott Niedermayer as proof of this.
But instead of being cynical - let’s look at some real numbers and use actual logic to analyze this situation. Don’t get me wrong – decades of not seeing the Stanley Cup hoisted in Toronto makes me cynical too, but numbers don’t lie.






Kessel scored 36 goals last year for the Bruins in only 70 games. Pessimists will say he was with Marc Savard, and that Leafs will never be able to provide him such a set up man – but he has already proven that theory wrong. On a team like the Leafs, lining up with various linemates, Kessel has potted 28 goals in 60 games. He has done this without the benefit of a full training camp and with the all the pressure placed on him by the media and fans alike. Essentially, last year’s stats and this year’s numbers show that he is a 35 to 40 goal scorer in the NHL. Both years have him at a pace of about a goal every 2 games. That’s just ridiculously good, and puts him in the goal scoring elite of the league, period. Not everyone is a natural goal scorer – Kessel is. He’s been a little streaky but he finds the back of the net. He is also leading the team in points with 51, Power Play Goals with 8 and Game Winning Goals with 5. Natural goal scorers tend to lead their teams in PPGs and GWGs.

And 40 goal scorers do not grow on trees. He is only 22 yrs old, and even with a reduced goal scoring pace, it is not only possible that he will become a 400 goal scorer but even a 500 goal scorer in this league. Such achievements put him into some pretty elite company. Draft day never guarantees a pick that will achieve such numbers and never will. Taylor Hall and Tyler Seguin, two of the likely lottery picks, may end up being solid NHLers, even All-Stars, but Kessel is a proven commodity. At the age of 22 has 94 goals to his credit.

The cynics will disagree and say that Kessel is still unproven, and that such lofty projections do not take into account the fact some insiders feel has been and will be prone to injury. But what guarantees does the draft offer you?

It has been a long time since the Leafs had such a young gun who constantly finds the back of the net. Not every high draft pick results in such a talent, and many first rounders struggle to maintain an NHL career of any note. Kessel will likely have 100 NHL goals to his credit before this season’s out, while all the projected lottery picks will have yet to crack an NHL lineup.