Pony Up!

Do not expect any big trades to go down before the NHL-imposed Olympic trade freeze beginning at 3pm on February 12th. It would make absolutely no business sense for a GM to force something when a little patience could pay off by waiting until after the break. As the league shuts-down for the next two weeks, it shouldn’t be surprising to think that GMs will use the time off to re-evaluate their rosters before looking to make any upgrades. Nor would it make much hockey sense either. While true that there are quite a few games on the NHL schedule between now and Sunday, a new arrival would have little time to build any real chemistry with his new line mates prior to packing up for Vancouver, or whatever other destinations the non-Olympians are off to.

With that said, a minor deal for prospects or some spare parts makes some sense. But any deal with real market value is better left until after the break when GMs have had the opportunity to pick each others’ brains, and see what they can really get in return for a valued asset. One such asset the Leafs currently have is Alexei Ponikarovsky. A solid 20-goal scorer on a basement-dwelling team has already been reported to have many teams willing to take a ride on the Pony, but what is he worth?

Bob McKenzie over at tsn.ca believes Pony is worth the same price that the Habs paid for Dominic Moore; a 2nd rounder. Other rumours have the asking price for Pony at a 2nd rounder plus a prospect or roster player. A hasty move gets the Leafs a 2nd rounder, but we think that Pony is worth more if patience prevails. Forget comparing him to Moore, since the former Bud is now off the market and the clock will start ticking louder in the brains of GMs looking to add a bona-fide NHLer for a playoff run. So let’s compare Pony to another commodity which is rumoured to be worth a 2nd rounder and is still available: Andy Sutton of the Islanders. Yes, he is a shut-down Defenseman, as opposed to a 20-goal scorer, but: 1) both have GMs talking right now, 2) both are UFA’s and 3) all teams that are looking to go deep in the playoffs will want to add depth in scoring or acquire a shut-down defenseman. The impending lure of signing an unrestricted free agent cannot be understated in the cap era either as teams are looking to shed salary - so let’s look at the numbers:

ANDY SUTTON, Pos: D, Age: 35, PTS: 11 (4G, 7A), PIM: 73, +/-: -3, Salary: 3.5 mil, Cap Hit: 3 mil

ALEX PONIKAROVSKY, Pos: LW, Age: 29, PTS: 41 (19G, 22A), PIM: 44, +/-: 5, Salary: 2.5 mil, Cap Hit: 2.015 mil

*20% of the Cap Hit is picked up by the new team

The main thing to focus on as we are comparing a D to a LW is the cap hit and the overall impact you think the player will have in a playoff run. Pony is a lower cap hit, and Pony should end up with 25+ goals and 60 pts. on a below-average team. If a team is in need of a shut-down D-man then Sutton is worth the 2nd rounder, but if my team is going to make a run, I look at Pony and think he is definitely worth a 2nd plus a prospect or roster player. If a team is looking to shed some salary, they are more likely to want to part with a roster player anyways. Do any teams fit that bill? We would suggest: Pittsburgh, Chicago, Tampa Bay and Nashville. Do not be surprised to see any team in need of scoring depth pony up with more than a 2nd rounder, but only if patience prevails down at MLSE.

Sources:

http://tsn.ca/blogs/bob_mckenzie/?id=309857

http://www.islanderspointblank.com/2010/02/interest-intensifies-in-sutton-rolosonnyi-could-benefit-from-bidding-war-before-deadline/