Why The Ladies Make Me Cry

In what will undoubtedly be one of my shortest blogs going forward, I would be negligent in my duties as an internet blogger if I didn't acknowledge the awe-inspiring performance of Joannie Rochette last night in the ladies' short program. We all know her heartbreaking story. Needless to say that I was moved by her performance. Not only did she somehow gather the strength to compete yesterday just two days after the passing of her mother, but she mustered all of her focus and energy to skate flawlessly. Whether or not she wins a medal is irrelevant at this point. What she has done embodies the spirit of the Olympics. Her skate yesterday should be the story of these games. Congratulations Joannie on being a true Olympic Champion!

5 Ways Canada Can Still Take Gold in Vancouver – Roberto Luongo and TOI are the Keys to the Gold Medal

Team Canada has had a rough ride through the preliminary portion of the Olympic schedule, but now comes crunch time. Here we offer up the ways we see Canada walking away with the gold on home ice:

1. Ride Luongo to the Promised Land – This is a moot point now as it has been confirmed that Roberto is getting the start tonight. Lose, we’re out – win, he obviously stays in for the rest of the tournament - minus an atrocious effort against a weaker German side. Brodeur is arguably the greatest goalie ever, but this is Luongo’s chance to shine and take his place at the top for years to come. Plus, he is on his ice in Vancouver – his comfort level with the ice surface, the bounces and the boards can only be a benefit.

2. Shorten the Bench – This is the perennial problem with Canadian hockey teams: too much talent. But we cannot have Crosby averaging 15 minutes a game when he has been use to 23+ his entire life. Elite hockey players need their TOI to be higher, period. They need to get a feel for the flow of the game and you cannot do that with 4 equal lines – Babcock needs to decide on 3 lines tops. Crosby and the San Jose line need to be given the extra time at the expense of others. The defense needs to be shortened too. Babcock has to pick his 6 D horses and ride them.

3. Use the Body – Essentially, start playing the Canadian game. Has there really been enough of this in the first few efforts? Our guys are big and we are playing on an NHL surface, so the historical excuse of not being able to adjust our game to the bigger European surfaces is out the window.

4. Get in Front of the Net - Watching the last game was like watching the Leafs for most of the season. Canada peppered Miller with the rubber and lost. Most coaches will tell you, if you are getting over 40 shots a game, you are not getting in front of the net enough. The style of play that keeps guys in front allows for the skirmishes and battles that result in goals at the expense of high shot totals.

5. Bag the Ego – Now this ties into #2 and the shortened bench, but it is the key to the gold medal. Some guys are going to have accept reduced minutes and Babcock has to tell some forwards they are going to be 4th liners with minimal TOI. We need the Michael Peca, Eric Brewer and Adam Foote types we had in 2002, to play key roles while letting 3 lines and 6 D stay on the ice.

Tell us what you think.

Close the phones for the Closers

It's that time of the year again: opening day for spring training. (yay!) Today, pitchers and catchers officially report to camp to undertake their physicals. Obviously, the most significant change with Jays this season is no Roy Halladay. While my heart is certainly heavy without seeing the good doctor in camp, I'm also excited at the prospect of seeing the young guns in the Jays organization get a shot to take the reigns this season.

Many observers have commented at the fact that GM Alex Anthopoulos seems to have gone out of his way to acquire pitching depth and thus, should be in a position to trade that depth for more hitting power.

However, pulling the trigger on a move like this would be haphazard and reckless. The abundance of depth in the Jays bullpen is needed now more than ever and AA's best move should be to turn off his blackberry and stand pat for now.

With the starting rotation appearing as though it will consist of a mixture of young arms and players returning from injury, one would have to assume that at least, in the early going, the Jays won't be looking at these players to pitch late into games.

This is where the plethora of pitching depth in the bullpen is most valuable: If the young pitchers can give the club 6 innings of work and allow the Jays to stay in the game, imagine what the stability that a bullpen consisting of Downs, Frasor, and Gregg could bring to the table. Having these veteran pitchers come in to pitch the 7th, 8th, and 9th to close out a game could give the Jays an extra 10-15 wins this season.

Most would say that because Downs and Frasor make a combined $6.5 million this season, that now is the time that the Jays should dump this salary and get some hitting prospects in return.

The time to make this move isn't now though. Perhaps nearing the trade deadline, if the Jays starting staff have round into shape or other relief pitchers prove that they can pitch well (Jeremy Accardo, for example), then that would be the time to re-evaluate whether or not some of the pitching depth could be moved out to help the team. Until then, I'm more than happy to keep all of the veteran pitching in the bullpen regardless of their salary. Those without options should be sent to Triple AAA, knowing that with an injury or a bad start to the season, they are just a call-up away.

Who makes the Jays' opening day pitching rotation? The Toronto Sports Guys will save that for another blog. Until then, we would love for you to comment on who you think should take the five starting rotation spots and the seven spots in the bullpen.

Don't Count on me to Check the Medal Standings

With the Blue Jays evaluating their pitching depth, the Leafs not having dropped a game in over a week (season record), and the Raptors standing pat at the trade deadline, my concentration has shifted to the Olympics.

I have to say, I'm disappointed at all this pressure being placed on our Canadian athletes to "Own the Podium" and our desire to top the Americans in the overall medal standings.

Sure, it would be nice to beat the Americans, but what's the big deal if we don't? Doesn't it count that our athletes are preforming at the top of their games and we've been blessed with nine days of superb athleticism? Isn't it humbling to hear the stories of athletes such as Alex Biladou and Jon Montgomery make it to the top of the podium, without having to be constantly reminded that "we've lost a medal we were guaranteed at winning"?

Firstly, nothing's a guarantee; that's why the races are run. Secondly, how can we be expected to be at the top when we just don't have the numbers to do it.

Using a salary-cap-esque analysis, Canada's population is roughly 34 million compared to that of the U.S. at 330 million. Obviously, the Americans are drawing from a much larger talent pool. Secondly, the American investment in their sports is at least 10 times more than what we invest, so much so that their athletes are heavily subsidized by the government and private sponsors to make training a job. While that is to say that the Canadian government is not doing their share, proportionately, we cannot even compete with American investment.

All I'm asking is for is to be proud of our athletes achievements thus far in the Olympics without worrying about whether we medal or not. Be proud for all the athletes, athletes such as skiier Eric Guay, who "wasn't expected to do much", yet has finished 5th place in both the downhill and the Super G - personal bests for Guay at the Olympics.

Stop handicapping our chances at medals for every single event, such as today's woman's 1500 metre speed-skating event, where Canada "could win multiple medals". I'm sick of hearing the analysts open their broadcasts with "...and this event is where Canada is not expected to win a medal." How many casual viewers would just groan and change the channel so as to not waste their time watching another hopeless event.

Let's just watch the events, cheer for our athletes, and count on them to give the performance on their lives.

Why Team Canada Won't Win Gold

After watching the first two games the Canada has played in the Olympic IIHF tournament, it's clear what the glaring deficiency that will prevent them from winning gold is: too much star power. The problem so far with their play through 2 games is that they are being too cute with the puck and not doing the little things right: get the puck deep into the zone, pressure the defense, establish a good cycle, set-up plays in the slot, and get traffic in front of the net; in other words, playing the Canadian game.

The flashes of brilliance seen so far (the 2nd period of the Norway game and the 2 goals created by the San Jose line against Switzerland) came as a direct result of playing the same style of play that I mentioned above. The rest of the time, those high-quality scoring chances have just not been there and these two Tier B teams have made a star-studded cast of Canadian players look average.

A lot of fingers are being pointed at the fact that in a short tournament such as this one, the NHL stars are still adjusting to their new line-mates and systems. I think the problem is that we have too many high-skilled players playing with one another and there is confusion among the players how a play should be finished, ergo, all of the over-passing that we've seen so far that's resulted in a defensive break-up down low. How else do you explain a player like Sydney Crosby, a 41-goal scorer in the NHL, suddenly become a pass-first player and driving to the net only once (in retaliation to receiving a high stick to the face.)?

I know that Babcock is still trying to find chemistry, but we can't be successful if he continues to roll 4 1/3 forward lines and give everyone a proportionately equal amount of ice time. If Canada is to be successful moving forward, some players will have to take less ice time to allow the more pure goal scorers more time on the ice. I think that the coaches should really try giving 2 lines the majority of the ice time, while limiting the remaining seven players to roles that we would expect 3rd and 4th line NHLers to fulfill: bring a solid defensive game when on the ice and provide a few high-energy minutes.

What could be done? First (although this is a moot point), some defensive-minded forwards should have been named to team, a la Ryan Smyth and Shane Doan. Since that didn't happen Babcock should give most of the ice time to the San Jose line, by far the best offensive players through 2 games, as well as the Crosby, Nash, and Toews/Burgeron/Iginla (whoever Babcock deems the most compatible). I think that Perry and Getzlaf bring a physical presence to their game that could be suited for this 3rd-line roll. Players like Richards, Morrow , Staal, and Bergeron can kill penalties, play well defensively, and can bring a high tempo game that allows Canada to open up the forecheck and work the puck in the corners

In my heart, I'd like to think that the route Canada will take to the gold medal is similar to the path taken in Salt Lake City that saw the Canadians start slow, but get better as the tournament progressed. That being said, unless the coaching staff sets a more rigid shift-rotation and the players will start playing their game, it could be another early exit for the boys in white and red.

Pony Up!

Do not expect any big trades to go down before the NHL-imposed Olympic trade freeze beginning at 3pm on February 12th. It would make absolutely no business sense for a GM to force something when a little patience could pay off by waiting until after the break. As the league shuts-down for the next two weeks, it shouldn’t be surprising to think that GMs will use the time off to re-evaluate their rosters before looking to make any upgrades. Nor would it make much hockey sense either. While true that there are quite a few games on the NHL schedule between now and Sunday, a new arrival would have little time to build any real chemistry with his new line mates prior to packing up for Vancouver, or whatever other destinations the non-Olympians are off to.

With that said, a minor deal for prospects or some spare parts makes some sense. But any deal with real market value is better left until after the break when GMs have had the opportunity to pick each others’ brains, and see what they can really get in return for a valued asset. One such asset the Leafs currently have is Alexei Ponikarovsky. A solid 20-goal scorer on a basement-dwelling team has already been reported to have many teams willing to take a ride on the Pony, but what is he worth?

Bob McKenzie over at tsn.ca believes Pony is worth the same price that the Habs paid for Dominic Moore; a 2nd rounder. Other rumours have the asking price for Pony at a 2nd rounder plus a prospect or roster player. A hasty move gets the Leafs a 2nd rounder, but we think that Pony is worth more if patience prevails. Forget comparing him to Moore, since the former Bud is now off the market and the clock will start ticking louder in the brains of GMs looking to add a bona-fide NHLer for a playoff run. So let’s compare Pony to another commodity which is rumoured to be worth a 2nd rounder and is still available: Andy Sutton of the Islanders. Yes, he is a shut-down Defenseman, as opposed to a 20-goal scorer, but: 1) both have GMs talking right now, 2) both are UFA’s and 3) all teams that are looking to go deep in the playoffs will want to add depth in scoring or acquire a shut-down defenseman. The impending lure of signing an unrestricted free agent cannot be understated in the cap era either as teams are looking to shed salary - so let’s look at the numbers:

ANDY SUTTON, Pos: D, Age: 35, PTS: 11 (4G, 7A), PIM: 73, +/-: -3, Salary: 3.5 mil, Cap Hit: 3 mil

ALEX PONIKAROVSKY, Pos: LW, Age: 29, PTS: 41 (19G, 22A), PIM: 44, +/-: 5, Salary: 2.5 mil, Cap Hit: 2.015 mil

*20% of the Cap Hit is picked up by the new team

The main thing to focus on as we are comparing a D to a LW is the cap hit and the overall impact you think the player will have in a playoff run. Pony is a lower cap hit, and Pony should end up with 25+ goals and 60 pts. on a below-average team. If a team is in need of a shut-down D-man then Sutton is worth the 2nd rounder, but if my team is going to make a run, I look at Pony and think he is definitely worth a 2nd plus a prospect or roster player. If a team is looking to shed some salary, they are more likely to want to part with a roster player anyways. Do any teams fit that bill? We would suggest: Pittsburgh, Chicago, Tampa Bay and Nashville. Do not be surprised to see any team in need of scoring depth pony up with more than a 2nd rounder, but only if patience prevails down at MLSE.

Sources:

http://tsn.ca/blogs/bob_mckenzie/?id=309857

http://www.islanderspointblank.com/2010/02/interest-intensifies-in-sutton-rolosonnyi-could-benefit-from-bidding-war-before-deadline/